News & Insights
What are central banks trying to achieve?
The focus seems to be on demand destruction to take inflation back to target. Fed set on a quick path to a terminal rate above.4%. ECB and BoE following suit, even with weaker economies. Some central banks (BoC and RBA) taking their foot off the pedal. Central Bank...
ANDPAPERS Q4 2022 | WINTER IS COMING
Q3 began with a glimmer of hope for markets. Expectations that the Fed could start to pivot (given concerns about slowing growth) translated into a significant rebound from mid-June lows. By mid-August, the rally had come to a screeching halt: a high US inflation...
The price of panic: why investors should be wary of the inflation crystal ball
Start a conversation these days and the likelihood is that at some point it will turn to inflation. Shall we go for a drink? How’s that house move shaping up? Where shall we go on holiday next year? Avoiding reference to rising prices or the efforts to control them is...
NOTE FROM THE CIO 30.08.2022
The first six months of 2022 were particularly challenging for investors: central banks became increasingly determined to rein in inflation at a time when several factors (including Ukraine conflict) kept pushing up inflationary pressures. As a result, US Stocks and...
TO HEDGE OR NOT TO HEDGE? DOES IT MAKE SENSE FOR INSURERS TO TAKE ON FX RISK?
FX HEDGING ASSET EXPOSURE In the last 6 - 12 months we have seen a torrent of activity as Central Banks have worked, arguably unsuccessfully, to use interest rates to control inflation. Given recent geopolitical events the drivers of inflation seem to have shifted...
Global Macro Market Outlook: What is the medium-term view?
Prior to the COVID outbreak, the main topics of conversation and concern were low growth and low inflation, with low productivity and ageing demographics hampering the developed economies. Central banks have been forced into successive long periods of monetary support...
H1 2022 in perspective: How long will the downturn last?
How much further can stocks and bonds fall, how long will the downturn last, when can we expect to recover the losses incurred this year? While we do not have a crystal ball and cannot give any guarantees about future performance, we endeavour to provide our portfolio...
Can central banks tame inflation?
Inflation will remain high through most of the second half of this year and in some countries, such as the UK, it will most likely move into double-digits during the autumn as planned energy hikes feed through. Over the past 2 years, inflation forecasting has been...
The recession emerges from the shadows
A late but forthright shift in central bank guidance, coupled with decisive monetary policy action, has coincided with a natural slow-down in economic activity. This has raised the prospect of an outright recession across major developed economies. Recent bond market...
ANDPAPERS Q3 2022 | CENTRAL BANKS TIGHTENING INTO A RECESSION
The first half of 2022 has drawn to a close with both equities and fixed income posting big losses. The US stocks have had the worst start to the year in over 50 years. With bond markets having had the worst start to the year since records began. Uncertainty is the...
The Debrief | Q3 2022
We invite you to sit down with our Chief Investment Officer, Pau Morilla Giner, and Head of the Private Investment Office, Iain Tait, as they debrief on the last quarter and look ahead to potential market trends for Q3 2022. They examine the geo-political shifts,...
Inflation: what next?
Inflation will inevitably rise sharply in coming months as the Russian invasion of Ukraine has added to the ongoing commodity price shock. Inflation may approach 8–9% across a number of the major economies, which is well above inflation targets. Key factors: Supply...