Macro Outlook

ANDPAPERS Q1 2023 | CENTRAL BANKS DIVERGING

ANDPAPERS Q1 2023 | CENTRAL BANKS DIVERGING

“There are decades where nothing happens, and years when decades happen.” 2022 was indeed one of those years. In February, Russia’s amassing of troops on Ukraine’s border quickly erupted in an armed conflict that is still ongoing. This caused oil and gas prices to...

ANDPAPERS Q4 2022 | WINTER IS COMING

ANDPAPERS Q4 2022 | WINTER IS COMING

Q3 began with a glimmer of hope for markets. Expectations that the Fed could start to pivot (given concerns about slowing growth) translated into a significant rebound from mid-June lows. By mid-August, the rally had come to a screeching halt: a high US inflation...

ANDPAPERS Q2 2022 | CENTRAL BANKS ON THE MOVE

ANDPAPERS Q2 2022 | CENTRAL BANKS ON THE MOVE

The devastating impact of the war in Ukraine has had profound economic repercussions. Russia and Ukraine represent a small share of global GDP and financial markets, but the spike in oil and gas prices triggered by the conflict (and the subsequent sanctions) has...

AndPapers Q4 2021 | Return to life as we knew it?

AndPapers Q4 2021 | Return to life as we knew it?

Even if full normalcy is still a long way ahead, shops are reopening, vaccines are rolling out and people are ready to return to ‘life as we knew it’. Closing the remaining slack will keep providing impetus to economic growth, but there is evidence that the speed of...

AndPapers Q3 2021 | The Fed Flexes its Muscles

AndPapers Q3 2021 | The Fed Flexes its Muscles

As we passed the one-year mark from the onset of COVID-19, business activity is recovering from lockdowns amidst a progressive rollout of vaccines. In combination with fiscal stimulus, the gradual reopening of economies threatens to push global output above potential...

AndPapers Q2 2021 | The Transition to Recovery

AndPapers Q2 2021 | The Transition to Recovery

Vaccine deployment is beginning to allow pent-up demand in service industries to materialise, but with notable differences across countries and sectors. The recent increase in the number of COVID-19 cases may be partially explained by higher global mobility, as some...