Macro Outlook
ANDPAPERS Q2 2022 | CENTRAL BANKS ON THE MOVE
The devastating impact of the war in Ukraine has had profound economic repercussions. Russia and Ukraine represent a small share of global GDP and financial markets, but the spike in oil and gas prices triggered by the conflict (and the subsequent sanctions) has...
AndPapers Q1 2022 | Normalisation in a post-pandemic world
2021 featured a fast rebound in economic activity as vaccines allowed for progressive re-openings, so global output is almost back to pre-pandemic levels. Despite an upturn in Delta infections (and the more recent emergence of Omicron), economic growth remains well...
AndPapers Q4 2021 | Return to life as we knew it?
Even if full normalcy is still a long way ahead, shops are reopening, vaccines are rolling out and people are ready to return to ‘life as we knew it’. Closing the remaining slack will keep providing impetus to economic growth, but there is evidence that the speed of...
AndPapers Q3 2021 | The Fed Flexes its Muscles
As we passed the one-year mark from the onset of COVID-19, business activity is recovering from lockdowns amidst a progressive rollout of vaccines. In combination with fiscal stimulus, the gradual reopening of economies threatens to push global output above potential...
AndPapers Q2 2021 | The Transition to Recovery
Vaccine deployment is beginning to allow pent-up demand in service industries to materialise, but with notable differences across countries and sectors. The recent increase in the number of COVID-19 cases may be partially explained by higher global mobility, as some...
AndPapers Q1 2021 | The start of the end or the end of the beginning?
2020 will forever be remembered as the year of the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to the most severe economic contraction in almost 100 years. In addition to COVID-19, 2020 was also memorable for other developments: As the world ground to a halt in March, policy...
AndPapers Q4 2020 | Central Bank Mantra ‘Low for Longer’
The release of this outlook coincides with the 6-month anniversary of when the UK first entered lockdown. As households and companies adjust to this COVID-19 dominated era, so must investors. One of the main conclusions is that the combination of VUCA (Volatility,...
Macro Outlook Q3 2020 | Where Now For The Global Economy?
Financial markets have rallied since April, with investors growing more confident that economies will turn around quickly from the fallout caused by the pandemic. Their optimism has increased in recent weeks as various countries have started to ease lock-down...
Macro Outlook Q2 2020 | From Growth, to Unprecedented Global Contraction, to Recovery
The nature of the economic shock experienced in recent weeks is unparalleled, with governments driving economies into recession in order to deal with a public health emergency. The impact on markets has been equally severe and despite some more recent relief for asset...
Macro Outlook Q1 2020 | 20/20 End of cycle postponed, but vision far from perfect
2019 will be remembered as the year when major central banks staged a significant turnaround in monetary stance. The easing was precipitated by the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dovish pivot in January, and since then we have seen both the Fed and European Central Bank...
Macro Outlook Q4 2019 | The Japanification of the Global Economy
On the back of the screeching handbrake turn by major Central Banks, financial markets are showing signs of extreme confusion: while equity markets still seems to be in “insurance policy” mode, bond markets have moved to price in a higher likelihood of recession. It...
Macro Outlook Q3 2019 | Monetary Policy in Full Swing
On the back of the screeching handbrake turn by main Central Banks (led by the Fed), financial markets are exhibiting signs of extreme confusion: equity investors’ thinking about the Fed still seems to be in “insurance policy” mode, while bond markets are pricing in a...