Macro Outlook
ANDPAPERS Q3 2023 | ARE WE CLOSER TO AN INFLECTION POINT?
In the last 12 months, financial conditions have tightened to an unprecedented degree, including a rise in the Fed Funds rate from 1% to 5%. But the lack of damage to the financial system is surprising with the total sum of financial failures limited to just one large...
ANDPAPERS Q2 2023 | THE BALANCING ACT
The first quarter of 2023 began with positive sentiment on the growth outlook, as energy costs fell and China’s economy showed tentative signs of reopening. However, the mid-March collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Credit Suisse (CS) served as a sharp reminder...
ANDPAPERS Q1 2023 | CENTRAL BANKS DIVERGING
“There are decades where nothing happens, and years when decades happen.” 2022 was indeed one of those years. In February, Russia’s amassing of troops on Ukraine’s border quickly erupted in an armed conflict that is still ongoing. This caused oil and gas prices to...
ANDPAPERS Q4 2022 | WINTER IS COMING
Q3 began with a glimmer of hope for markets. Expectations that the Fed could start to pivot (given concerns about slowing growth) translated into a significant rebound from mid-June lows. By mid-August, the rally had come to a screeching halt: a high US inflation...
ANDPAPERS Q3 2022 | CENTRAL BANKS TIGHTENING INTO A RECESSION
The first half of 2022 has drawn to a close with both equities and fixed income posting big losses. The US stocks have had the worst start to the year in over 50 years. With bond markets having had the worst start to the year since records began. Uncertainty is the...
ANDPAPERS Q2 2022 | CENTRAL BANKS ON THE MOVE
The devastating impact of the war in Ukraine has had profound economic repercussions. Russia and Ukraine represent a small share of global GDP and financial markets, but the spike in oil and gas prices triggered by the conflict (and the subsequent sanctions) has...
AndPapers Q1 2022 | Normalisation in a post-pandemic world
2021 featured a fast rebound in economic activity as vaccines allowed for progressive re-openings, so global output is almost back to pre-pandemic levels. Despite an upturn in Delta infections (and the more recent emergence of Omicron), economic growth remains well...
AndPapers Q4 2021 | Return to life as we knew it?
Even if full normalcy is still a long way ahead, shops are reopening, vaccines are rolling out and people are ready to return to ‘life as we knew it’. Closing the remaining slack will keep providing impetus to economic growth, but there is evidence that the speed of...
AndPapers Q3 2021 | The Fed Flexes its Muscles
As we passed the one-year mark from the onset of COVID-19, business activity is recovering from lockdowns amidst a progressive rollout of vaccines. In combination with fiscal stimulus, the gradual reopening of economies threatens to push global output above potential...
AndPapers Q2 2021 | The Transition to Recovery
Vaccine deployment is beginning to allow pent-up demand in service industries to materialise, but with notable differences across countries and sectors. The recent increase in the number of COVID-19 cases may be partially explained by higher global mobility, as some...
AndPapers Q1 2021 | The start of the end or the end of the beginning?
2020 will forever be remembered as the year of the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to the most severe economic contraction in almost 100 years. In addition to COVID-19, 2020 was also memorable for other developments: As the world ground to a halt in March, policy...
AndPapers Q4 2020 | Central Bank Mantra ‘Low for Longer’
The release of this outlook coincides with the 6-month anniversary of when the UK first entered lockdown. As households and companies adjust to this COVID-19 dominated era, so must investors. One of the main conclusions is that the combination of VUCA (Volatility,...