News & Insights
Navigating the year of transition
Productivity, Labour Markets, and Central Banks Amongst others, the underlying issues that matter to the trajectory of growth include productivity, investment and labour market trends. The US is seeing higher productivity, but it seems to be an exception. There is...
The Central Banks’ key role in this year of transition
Major Central Banks hit the pause button in the final quarter of 2023, providing a positive fillip to markets. However, the Fed then went a few steps further - acknowledging that the bond markets had accurately anticipated a shift to lower interest rates. The FOMC...
2024: The Year of Shifts
The post-Covid economic cycle was always likely to move into a ‘Year of Transition’ and it increasingly appears that 2024 will be that year. But what do we mean by that? Put simply, policymakers and investors will have to determine whether we are likely to gradually...
ANDPAPERS Q1 2024 | THE YEAR OF TRANSITION
The global economy was remarkably resilient in 2023. Key drivers being consumer spending, a robust labour market, and increased business capital spending. For investors, the journey was more challenging: major central banks, in their efforts to combat inflation,...
Staying close to the shore: Embracing patience and a low-risk equities portfolio
The role of a good asset manager is to protect and grow a client’s money. An obvious statement maybe, but one worth making – particularly when it comes to discussing equities. Stocks are often the most glamourous, headline-grabbing part of the investment universe....
Is China imploding or is the worst behind us now?
We have had zero direct Chinese exposure in London & Capital asset allocation whilst we waited for the myriad of issues to be suitably resolved. Of course, there is indirect exposure via most global companies selling into China - either receiving inputs into their...
Consumer Outlook and Inflation Projections in the US Economy
First of all, we look at what would shift a soft-landing in the US into a recession, the consumer remains pivotal in this debate, but the picture is mixed across major economies. The risk of a consumer contraction is most likely in Europe, UK and Canada. Japan also...
“Higher for longer”: A warning or the new reality?
The Federal Reserve Chairman has been relentless in recent weeks, banging the drum for “higher for longer” interest rate policy. This has begun to undermine the Treasury market despite generally supportive economic data including better Personal Consumption...
ANDPAPERS Q4 2023 | HIGHER FOR LONGER
Q3 has put the optimism that drove the rally in the first half of the year to the test, especially regarding the expectation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would soon move to cut interest rates. Indeed, the resilience of the US economy seems to have led to a...
THESEUS, THE LABYRINTH AND THE MINOTAUR
Insurance strategic asset allocation, a tool to navigate the investment labyrinth Investment markets are a labyrinth We have explored some interesting themes in our journey through Greek mythology (multi-faceted risk, active vs passive for insurance, duration vs...
Are Central Banks finally approaching the end of the rate-hiking cycle?
Central Bank rhetoric remains hawkish, with policymakers determined not to repeat last year’s mistake of underestimating inflation. From their perspective, the ideal would be a mix of slower, but positive economic growth, avoiding the pitfalls of a deep recession,...
Is inflation finally trending lower, or is it likely to be sticky?
The US leads the downward trend, with headline inflation falling back to 4% Year on Year (from over 8% in Q4 2022) and set to drop further over the next few months. Core inflation had proved stickier, but even here there is encouraging news. Most economies are moving...