Market Updates
The inflation conundrum
Inflation appears to have peaked in most major economies, but it remains uncomfortably high and well above target levels, and is likely to persist above target levels into 2024. Central banks are not arguing that the inflation problem has been resolved, but markets...
Financial Instability: Assessing the Current Banking Crisis
The Fed has financial stability as one of its three targets for monetary policy (inflation at 2% and full employment being the other two of course). All other central banks are less explicit but mimic the Fed when push comes to shove. The odds of the financial...
It just got messy.
Just when it seemed that the central banks could focus solely on inflation, a potential banking crisis has emerged that may derail their plans for a smooth landing and lower inflation. While policymakers appear calm on the surface, like an elegant swan floating across...
THE DEBRIEF | Q2 2023
We invite you to sit down with our Chief Investment Officer, Pau Morilla Giner, and Head of the Private Investment Office, Iain Tait, as they debrief on the last quarter and look ahead to potential market trends for Q2 2023. They examine the geo-political shifts,...
Q2 Economic Update
It just got messy Just when it seemed that the Central Banks could focus just on inflation, along comes a “potential” banking crisis that may yet derail their well-laid plans for a smooth landing and lower inflation. On the surface the policymakers look calm and...
REPERCUSSIONS OF THE SILICON VALLEY BANK FAILURE ON FINANCIAL BONDS
In light of the Silicon Valley Bank failure, our strategy acknowledges that we may well enter a short-term period of market volatility but will continue to be assured by the strength of the balance sheets of the financial names we hold in our clients' portfolios....
Inflation forecast: what to expect in 2023?
Inflation is seemingly past its peak across most major economies, but of course it is still extremely high and well above target levels. A return to target is not likely until 2024, with average inflation rates looking high. However, this disguises the improvement...
A soft or harder landing?
The gap between official economic forecasts (the consensus is for a soft landing) and market expectations has widened further, with the latter discounting a greater probability of a steeper economic contraction. In our economic projections that underpin our asset...
Are central banks on a divergent path?
We reiterate our statement from last quarter that the major central banks are well advanced on the path of moving to a tight monetary regime through raising interest rates and starting QT (quantitative tightening). The Fed may well have deliberately adopted a hawkish...
ANDPAPERS Q1 2023 | CENTRAL BANKS DIVERGING
“There are decades where nothing happens, and years when decades happen.” 2022 was indeed one of those years. In February, Russia’s amassing of troops on Ukraine’s border quickly erupted in an armed conflict that is still ongoing. This caused oil and gas prices to...
The Debrief | Q1 2023
We invite you to sit down with our Chief Investment Officer, Pau Morilla Giner, and Head of the Private Investment Office, Iain Tait, as they debrief on the last quarter and look ahead to potential market trends for Q1 2023. They examine the geo-political shifts,...
AUTUMN STATEMENT – FIXED INCOME REACTION
Given the intense anticipation for the Autumn Statement please find below our market update and a summary of the macro impact. Post Autumn Statement Market Update The fiscal consolidation package, alongside Hunt’s reiteration of his support for the Bank of England...