Market Updates
Is China imploding or is the worst behind us now?
We have had zero direct Chinese exposure in London & Capital asset allocation whilst we waited for the myriad of issues to be suitably resolved. Of course, there is indirect exposure via most global companies selling into China - either receiving inputs into their...
Consumer Outlook and Inflation Projections in the US Economy
First of all, we look at what would shift a soft-landing in the US into a recession, the consumer remains pivotal in this debate, but the picture is mixed across major economies. The risk of a consumer contraction is most likely in Europe, UK and Canada. Japan also...
“Higher for longer”: A warning or the new reality?
The Federal Reserve Chairman has been relentless in recent weeks, banging the drum for “higher for longer” interest rate policy. This has begun to undermine the Treasury market despite generally supportive economic data including better Personal Consumption...
Are Central Banks finally approaching the end of the rate-hiking cycle?
Central Bank rhetoric remains hawkish, with policymakers determined not to repeat last year’s mistake of underestimating inflation. From their perspective, the ideal would be a mix of slower, but positive economic growth, avoiding the pitfalls of a deep recession,...
Is inflation finally trending lower, or is it likely to be sticky?
The US leads the downward trend, with headline inflation falling back to 4% Year on Year (from over 8% in Q4 2022) and set to drop further over the next few months. Core inflation had proved stickier, but even here there is encouraging news. Most economies are moving...
Is a recession likely, or are we merely facing a period of slower economic growth?
Global economic projections have been rising across the board in the past quarter. However, expectations at the start of the year were probably too bearish, meaning some of the re-rating is a natural adjustment. Nonetheless, the underlying growth momentum has...
THE DEBRIEF | Q3 2023
We invite you to sit down with our Chief Investment Officer, Pau Morilla Giner, and Head of the Private Investment Office, Iain Tait, as they debrief on the last quarter and look ahead to potential market trends for Q3 2023. They examine the geo-political shifts,...
Note from the CIO 15.06.2023
UK government bonds have seen the largest selloff since October’s “mini budget” crisis, with 2-year gilts hitting a peak of 4.9% yesterday (highest since 2008). THIS IS NOT A REPEAT OF OCTOBER MOVES A big question is if this is a repeat to what we saw in October,...
The inflation conundrum
Inflation appears to have peaked in most major economies, but it remains uncomfortably high and well above target levels, and is likely to persist above target levels into 2024. Central banks are not arguing that the inflation problem has been resolved, but markets...
Financial Instability: Assessing the Current Banking Crisis
The Fed has financial stability as one of its three targets for monetary policy (inflation at 2% and full employment being the other two of course). All other central banks are less explicit but mimic the Fed when push comes to shove. The odds of the financial...
It just got messy.
Just when it seemed that the central banks could focus solely on inflation, a potential banking crisis has emerged that may derail their plans for a smooth landing and lower inflation. While policymakers appear calm on the surface, like an elegant swan floating across...
THE DEBRIEF | Q2 2023
We invite you to sit down with our Chief Investment Officer, Pau Morilla Giner, and Head of the Private Investment Office, Iain Tait, as they debrief on the last quarter and look ahead to potential market trends for Q2 2023. They examine the geo-political shifts,...