This week's IDB, 'Markets buoyed by higher oil prices and slightly more supportive data', delivered by Equity Fund Manager, Roger Jones, focuses on the current challenges and opportunities in equity investing and covers the following:
- Last week Markets sustained their recovery, supported by higher oil prices, firm economic data and hopes that the G20 summit would deliver a co-ordinated policy response.
- Brent crude crept back above $35, despite comments by the Saudi oil Minister rejecting the possibility of oil production cuts at an OPEC meeting in mid-March.
- A series of positive surprises in US data have restarted the debate on a Fed hike. Fourth Quarter US GDP was revised up to 1% from 0.7%, durable goods for January were strong and Personal Consumption Expenditure rose to 1.7% YoY. The probability of a Fed rate hike this year has now increased from 36% to 49%.
- In the end the G20 summit delivered little action, only agreement that monetary policy alone was not enough to build sustainable growth and competitive currency devaluation should be avoided. Finance Minsters warned that a UK exit from the EU would be a shock to the global economy.
- Given last week’s shifting Fed policy expectations, this week’s non-farm payroll data will be closely watched, together with US and UK corporate survey data.
Please click here to view the presentation.