Macro Outlook
AndPapers Q4 2020 | Central Bank Mantra ‘Low for Longer’
The release of this outlook coincides with the 6-month anniversary of when the UK first entered lockdown. As households and companies adjust to this COVID-19 dominated era, so must investors. One of the main conclusions is that the combination of VUCA (Volatility,...
Macro Outlook Q3 2020 | Where Now For The Global Economy?
Financial markets have rallied since April, with investors growing more confident that economies will turn around quickly from the fallout caused by the pandemic. Their optimism has increased in recent weeks as various countries have started to ease lock-down...
Macro Outlook Q2 2020 | From Growth, to Unprecedented Global Contraction, to Recovery
The nature of the economic shock experienced in recent weeks is unparalleled, with governments driving economies into recession in order to deal with a public health emergency. The impact on markets has been equally severe and despite some more recent relief for asset...
Macro Outlook Q1 2020 | 20/20 End of cycle postponed, but vision far from perfect
2019 will be remembered as the year when major central banks staged a significant turnaround in monetary stance. The easing was precipitated by the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dovish pivot in January, and since then we have seen both the Fed and European Central Bank...
Macro Outlook Q4 2019 | The Japanification of the Global Economy
On the back of the screeching handbrake turn by major Central Banks, financial markets are showing signs of extreme confusion: while equity markets still seems to be in “insurance policy” mode, bond markets have moved to price in a higher likelihood of recession. It...
Macro Outlook Q3 2019 | Monetary Policy in Full Swing
On the back of the screeching handbrake turn by main Central Banks (led by the Fed), financial markets are exhibiting signs of extreme confusion: equity investors’ thinking about the Fed still seems to be in “insurance policy” mode, while bond markets are pricing in a...
Macro Outlook Q2 2019 | The Fed blinks: tightening policy postponed
Throughout the past quarter, US Fed Chair Jerome Powell executed the monetary policy equivalent of a screeching handbrake turn. After suggesting late last year that interest rate hikes and balance sheet reductions were on a pre-set path, Powell has dramatically...
Macro Outlook Q1 2019 | It’s cold without the QE blanket
What a year 2018 has been: US GDP growth hit 4%, Global Earnings Per Share (EPS) rose to all-time highs, US taxes were cut by $1.5tn, US corporates bought $0.8tn of stock, unemployment fell to multidecade lows in the US, UK, Europe, Japan… …And yet… Cash outperformed...